June 5, 2008

• Socrates Cafe: What is the probable future of the world?

  

  What is the probable future of Humans and the World?

  This large spinning globe we all call home is going to be around for a while. Geology and weather have never particularly "cared" about the small carbon based creatures roaming about the planet, even as we have been "fooling around with Mother Nature" and mucking up the planet as much as we can. There are always unprecedented universal occurences that could happen which might wipe all known life off the face of the earth, errant meteors, raging comets, a rash of volcanic activity, but these occurences are rare, and rarely happen, so barring any global event that might cause us all to cease existence, mankind will probably last for a long time as well.

  The earth takes a long, l-o-n-g time to physically change. No body could claim to have "seen" the Grand Canyon being etched out of the northwest Arizona landscape, even if someone had been around, because the Colorado river took a few million years to create the canyon we see today. Mankind arrived pretty late to the party, but that didn't stop him from making himself at home.

  From his beginnings in a small area located in northeastern Africa, mankind spread all over the world, settling wherever water could sustain him, and where crops could be planted. Small settlements grew to large civilizations, and soon man was terraforming the planet, forcing his home to correspond with his vision and plans for the future. His world soon spread across the spinning globe, and he saw that it was good.

  Even with mankind bending rivers, building dams, excavating precious materials, drilling for oil, turning deserts into paradises (and vice versa), the earth's geologic history kept slowly happening, unbeknownst to the eyes of man. It is believed that a lot of man's foibles attempting to make the world a better place for his short stay here have in fact changed or corrupted the natural flow of geologic time, and becuase of the carbon emissions from his petrol burning vehicles, which sometimes seem to multiply faster than mankind himself, the ozone layer surrounding the globe has diminished, causing a global warming which is currently melting icecaps and killing other indigenous life forms when their ecosystems collapse. Even small seemingly unimportant plankton which man doesn't even acknowledge, are dying off in large numbers, which might eventually corrupt the food chain, of which mankind has sat at the top for many years.

  Humans are certainly at a point now where we realize that no matter how many fingers we point and to whom, the planet is probably being decimated in small increments, over decades, and even more so in the past few hundred years, by some of the seeming "improvements" we have made with our landscaping prowess.

  In the near future, industrialized nations like the United States, the European Union, and China, will hopefully find more efficient ways to produce the energy they need to keep their populace satisfied. On the other hand, the third world countries need more than a guiding hand and the occasional food drop if their populations are to even remain existing. Colonialization and industrialization of the world has caused so many ecological and sociological problems that have now been ingrained in so many generations, that hatred and retribution are the emotions that run through most of the nations of the world in true need.

  The global disasters we hear about more rapidly now because of mass communication have always happened. There have  been earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis, cyclones and hurricanes, and monsoons and droughts all along. Only recently has the technology been available to tell the global audience these disasters are happening as they happen. This supposedly fosters awareness and discussion. However, the "world leaders" never seem to agree on any set course of action, and no matter how many warning systems are set in place, something else happens with enough regularity that it seems as if mankind still cannot get a grip on his deteriorating world.

  Economies which rely on energy, like the United States, are in fear of collapse monetarily. If enough global economic powerhouses remain in trouble, then this trickles down to the rest of the world. Staple commodities, like rice, begin to be overpriced, and when staples aren't affordable, then humankind could be in for global trouble, as more people starve, more disease spreads, and  more "civilizations" fall apart.

  One empire has always supplanted another during the history of man on Earth. No matter how "large" the world has seemed to get, usually the reins of power were in the hands of a woefully small group. When Rome fell, the European world lost a lot of then cutting edge technology, but soon the British Empire emerged, and those technologies were reinstated, and new technologies created. So it goes.

  America is the last "global superpower". The European Union and China are already stronger economically. Either the U.S. monetary system will eventually collapse altogether, or there will be a move towards a more "global currency". We will never all talk the same language, but we might soon be handling the same money. Money as we know it will probably completely disappear, except as a collectible entity.

  Nations will keep their individual identities to an extent, but more worldwide control of the global energy picture will have to take place. Forseeably, a worldwide Energy Commission will be created, policing the nations more solidly. Alternative energy sources will have to be adapted to take the place of not only gasoline to run our vehicles, but to replace substances which rely on petroleum, like plastics. Prior to humanity's reliance on petrochemical substances, the world ran on whale oil. The whaling industry was an immense supplier of a number of products in the 17th and 18th centuries, which were supplanted by other technologies. This will happen with the petrochemical industry as well. We know that the supplies are rapidly running out. We've drilled a lot of holes in the planet over the past couple hundred years.

  Give a guy a comfy chair, access to sporting events and entertainment, and a way to communicate, and he is satisfied. As the globe deteriorates even faster, mankind will eventually construct completely manmade environments. Most of the cities on Earth are "manmade" anyway. Dubai is a bustling place which was nothing but a desert 30 years ago. The trees planted along the streets of Los Angeles were almost all planted there by man and come from other places. Even lakes and streams are manmade. Soon we will make complete homes for ourselves, perhaps in space, or on the moon. With the privatation of space travel bringing entrepreneurs aboard, soon people with the money to fund more space travel and exploration will be able to construct colonies outside of the Earthly ecosystem. Even orbiting "apartment colonies" could give mankind a new place to sit down and watch the NBA finals while enjoying a beer.

  Computing technology will soon give birth to more robotic systems and larger machines, capable of building even larger machines. Thinktanks are planning comminities which might or might not be located on Earth, but will be able to sustain humanity with food and sustenance. Hopefully, before the world's coastal cities are covered in the rising tides of the Earth's seas, the populace within those cities will be relocated to other places. Within 50 to 100 years, we might see humanity housed in manmade habitats, while preservation societies would work to make the "world outside" more hospitable even as it becomes less so.

  If the robots don't revolt and kill us all, then robotic systems will take the place of a lot of "manual labor." This has been predicted for a long while, and will probably happen sooner than we expect, as computing power becomes stronger.

  Our entertainment will eventually be comprised of totally immersive virtual reality experiences. We will be able to not only walk along the paths leading to the Taj Majal but even visit the World Trade Center in New York or the great library of Alexandria, all without leaving our comfy chair (which could be located in an orbiting apartment colony) Some people might not even want to become "unplugged".

  The future could also contain a return to warring tribes if mankind keeps up his global bickering without realizing he has never looked at the big picture. Albert Einstien said that if world war three were fought with nuclear weapons, then world war four would be fought with stones. It isn't difficult to see how the dismal world pictures shown in movies like "The Road Warrior" could very well happen if we're not careful.

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  I haven't participated in a Socrates Cafe © topic in a long while, but I liked both of the topics this time out. Since this article is already pretty long, I might tackle the second topic a little later on. Besides this essay: What is the probable future of Humans and the World? the Cafe also asks What is the most desirable future for Humans and the World? CLICK HERE for the topic as hosted by the Socrates Cafe site and also for more individual discussions.

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  EDIT: 6/06/08 9:37p.m. pdt. In Socrates Cafe tradition, these essays are intended to spark a Socratic dialogue. I am answering any questions I found in comments below.

  "However, the space probes we sent out such as Voyager will be still be floating along, and our television and radio signals will continue forever." loveandpolitics

  In the future our "signals" will encompass a virtual digital world much like in "the Matrix" movies. Instead of this being the "world", there will be different "places" like current websites or multiplayer games, where people who are "plugged in" (or "jacked in" to use William Gibson's terminology.) can congregate. These "signals" will be inserted directly into our brains.

  I wonder if we are beginning to see a major decline as a superpower.couldquitepossiblybeme

  I predicted on this blog in 2005 that the U.S. would be bankrupt by 2007. I still believe that there will be a paradigm shift of some kind which will drastically reduce the scope of U.S. power on the world stage. The next "superpower" will be a global "world bank" power, rather than an individual nation. 

  I agree with all of these predictions.  I however, have also seen alot of movies. eadie

  In my novel "The Sands of Time" which I wrote in high school, the world in the year 3201 is covered in concrete because a global virus killed off all the natural vegetation, and mankind lives in giant "domes" which take the place of cities. Truly, I''ve been informed by a lot of sci fi, and a lot of sci fi has proven to be somewhat prescient as time goes on.

  The Roman Empire did not collapse overnight and neither will the "American Empire" - it may not have yet seen its best days; but the change is starting and this will be an interesting time to live.Socrates_Cafe

  I, too, believe that this is an exciting time to live, like the Renaissance in 15th century Italy or the dawn of the Industrial Age. Empires as we know them will cease to be physical places. Power will ultimately have to be shared by all denizens of the globe, or else we're doomed.

   I also accept we (humans) are only along for the ride on this planet. Botolf   I do believe that we are going to eventually kill ourselves off with our destruction of our planet's natural resources. Get_Real_64  I think the future of human beings will end in the hands of roaches. tinahawt

  The planet has seen other species dominate, that's for sure, and surely another life form will dominate after humans are either killed off (or kill ourselves off) or evolve. I prefer to believe we will eventually evolve into a more rational, less beastly form of life. (And maybe we'll even have Vulcan mentors!)

  This is a time when new views and new ideas are very important. I think Homo Sap is up to it. Do you? tychecat

  I, for one, certainly hope so. I've also written extensively that I believe a good place to start a global understanding is right here on the internet.

  The future...Creed_of_Kings

  Not a question. I had to chuckle at this one. The link is to one of my favorite scenes from one of my favorite films. Eloi in the year 302,701 answer a question from "Time Traveler" in George Pal's 1961 film "The Time Machine" (based on H.G. Welles' novel) "Do you have books?" "Yes, we have books." The books are so old and unkept that they crumble in his hands. Later, the "talking rings" tell him what has transpired with the world.

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